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EXPERIENCE AT 2 CRITICAL
I’ve heard some people say that perhaps we have not seen the 2008 Kentucky Derby winner yet. I beg to differ. The evidence is overwhelming that we have seen the Derby winner run in a race somewhere. That’s because Apollo in 1882 was the last -- and only -- Kentucky Derby winner who did not compete as a 2-year-old.
The one tried and true aspect for 125 straight Kentucky Derby winners is they ALL raced at 2.
When Apollo won the roses, there were only 38 states in the union. North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Washington, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Alaska and Hawaii were not part of the United States yet.
Not even Curlin, as talented as he is, could pull off the difficult feat of winning the Kentucky Derby without having started at least once as a juvenile. Since 1955, Derby starters who did not race at 2 are 0 for 44. Here’s the list:
No Regrets (finished 7th in 1956)
Gone Fishin’ (8th in 1958)
Our Dad (15th in 1959)
Gleaming Sword (14th in 1968)
Fourulla (19th in 1971)
Big Spruce (7th in 1972)
Kentuckian (10th in 1972)
Dr. Neale (15th in 1972)
Forego (4th in 1973)
Twice a Prince (12th in 1973)
Agitate (3rd in 1974)
Confederate Yankee (12th in 1974)
Media (5th in 1975)
Bold Chapeau (8th in 1975)
Amano (4th in 1976)
On the Sly (5th in 1976)
Affiliate (9th in 1977)
Best Person (15th in 1977)
Chief of Dixieland (9th in 1978)
Great Redeemer (10th in 1979)
Flying Nashua (8th in 1981)
Air Forbes One (7th in 1982)
Wavering Monarch (12th in 1982)
Majestic Shore (eased in 1984)
Irish Fighter (11th in 1985)
Wheatley Hall (6th in 1986)
Zabaleta (12th in 1986)
Pendleton Ridge (13th in 1990)
Corporate Report (9th in 1991)
Alydavid (14th in 1991)
Devil His Due (12th in 1992)
Disposal (18th in 1992)
Strodes Creek (2nd in 1994)
Pulpit (4th in 1997)
Desert Hero (13th in 1999)
Valhol (15th in 1999)
Wheelaway (5th in 2000)
Curule (7th in 2000)
Trippi (11th in 2000)
Atswhatimtalknabout (4th in 2003)
Song of the Sword (11th in 2004)
Greeley’s Galaxy (11th in 2005)
Showing Up (6th in 2006)
Curlin (3rd in 2007)
Prior to last year’s Run for the Roses, I wrote: “It is a very tall order for Curlin to win the Kentucky against a big field at 1 1/4 miles under 126 pounds with such little experience and seasoning.”
In a Louisville Courier-Journal story by Jody Demling, Steve Asmussen, Curlin’s trainer, stated before the Kentucky Derby: “There are reasons he may not have success in the Derby -- everybody knows the stats. But I don’t think anybody is questioning his ability. His ability doesn’t fall into stats anywhere. He’s capable of great things.”
After finishing third in Kentucky Derby, Curlin would go on to win the Preakness Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic, defeating Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense in both of those races. Curlin is odds-on to come away with a pair of 2007 Eclipse Awards this Monday as champion 3-year-old male and Horse of the Year.
People seem to be pleased whenever a Kentucky Derby winner breaks one of the so-called Derby “rules,” such as when Barbaro became the first Kentucky Derby winner to win off a five-week layoff or more since Needles in 1956. Or when Street Sense broke the so-called Breeders’ Cup jinx by becoming the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to also take the Kentucky Derby.
It’s become fashionable to deride Derby “rules.” I hear it all the time these days. “One by one, those Derby rules are being proved wrong,” is a typical comment, usually uttered in a tone of disdain.
But considering 125 straight Kentucky Derby winners have all had 2-year-old experience, and considering a gifted equine athlete like Curlin failed to win the roses without any 2-year-old experience, I submit that it’s obvious that 2-year-old experience is critical in terms of winning the big race on the first Saturday in May.
El Gato Malo, Z Fortune and Bordeaux Bandit are 3-year-olds who were impressive winners last weekend. The good news for them vis-à-vis the Kentucky Derby is they all raced at 2.
In Santa Anita’s Grade III San Rafael Stakes at one mile last Saturday, El Gato Malo capitalized on a ridiculously fast pace (:22.25, :44.34, 1:07.90) to win in come-from-behind fashion under David Flores on a lightning-fast Cushion Track surface. Owned by West Point Thoroughbreds and trained by Craig Dollase, El Gato Malo turned a 9 1/2-length deficit at the half-mile pole into a 6 1/2-length triumph while earning a 98 Beyer Speed Figure.
“He’s the real deal,” said Dollase. “He’s a special animal.”
El Gato Malo is untested in three career starts. He won by 5 1/2 lengths and earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure when unveiled in a six-furlong race at Hollywood Park on Nov. 18. Pat Valenzuela rode him on that occasion. Afterward, Valenzuela said he would go anywhere anytime to ride El Gato Malo.
Valenzuela indeed was back aboard when El Gato Malo cruised to a 4 1/2-length victory in the Gold Rush Stakes at one mile on Dec. 15. The Kentucky-bred El Corredor gelding recorded an 84 Beyer.
Thirteen days later, the California Horse Racing Board announced that Pat Valenzuela’s racing license had been terminated by the CHRB after they had been provided evidence by the Upland, Calif., police department that Valenzuela had been arrested for being under the influence of alcohol, a violation of his conditional jockey license.
That opened the door for Flores to ride El Gato Malo in the San Rafael. Dollase mentioned the Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 15 as a likely next race for the San Rafael winner.
Z Fortune, like El Gato Malo, is undefeated in three career starts. The New York-bred colt kicked off his racing career with a 6 1/2-length win and 93 Beyer Speed Figure against state-breds in a seven-furlong race at Belmont Park on Oct. 20. That was followed by a 4 3/4-length win and 77 Beyer vs. state-breds in a mile and 70-yard allowance affair at Aqueduct on Dec. 7.
At the Fair Grounds last Saturday, Z Fortune came home with gusto to register a 2 3/4-length victory in the Grade III Lecomte Stakes at one mile while earning a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. Steve Asmussen trains the son of Siphon. Blackberry Road finished second in the Lecomte. He is a half-brother to Vindication, an Eclipse Award winner in 2002 as champion 2-year-old male.
“My job is to figure out how to win the [Kentucky] Derby with him,” Asmussen was quoted as saying after the Lecomte. “We’ll try to map out a plan. He’s a good horse.”
How hot has Asmussen been in stakes races at the Fair Grounds? After 35 days of the 81-day meet, he already had set a Fair Grounds single-season record with 11 stakes wins. No trainer had previously won more than eight stakes races during a Fair Grounds meet.
Hard Spun won the 2007 Lecomte by 6 1/2 lengths and went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic. War Emblem finished fifth in the 2002 Lecomte and went on to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
Z Fortune is a New York-bred. El Gato Malo is a gelding. This brings to mind Funny Cide, who won the 2003 Kentucky Derby as a New York-bred gelding.
While a half-brother to Vindication finished second in the Lecomte, a son of Vindication by the name of Bordeaux Bandit registered an eye-catching 5 1/2-length maiden win in a mile race last Saturday at Gulfstream Park. In his only previous start, Bordeaux Bandit had finished fourth after stumbling at the start in a six-furlong race at Calder on Nov. 23.
Nick Zito trains Bordeaux Bandit, a half-brother to Noble Causeway. Noble Causeway, also conditioned by Zito, finished second to the Zito-trained High Fly in the Grade I Florida Derby in 2005.
“One thing about this horse, he’s got the pedigree,” Zito said of Bordeaux Bandit in a Daily Racing Form story by Mike Welsch. “Noble Causeway never got a break. Maybe his little brother will get a break.”
Bordeaux Bandit’s victory reminded me somewhat of Monarchos’ maiden win in a seven-furlong race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13, 2001. Making his third career start, Monarchos powered home to win by six lengths while earning a 95 Beyer, similar to Bordeaux Bandit’s 94 for his performance last Saturday. Monarchos would go on to take the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby.
With his scintillating performance in the San Rafael, El Gato Malo ran his way onto this week’s Kentucky Derby Top 10 list. It won’t take much more on the part of either Z Fortune or Bordeaux Bandit to also make it onto my Kentucky Derby Top 10.
Here is this week’s list:
1. Court Vision
2. War Pass
3. Pyro
4. Into Mischief
5. Cowboy Cal
6. El Gato Malo
7. Colonel John
8. Maimonides
9. Anak Nakal
10. Majestic Warrior
War Pass, undefeated winner of the Grade I Champagne Stakes and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for Zito, worked three furlongs in :37 at the Palm Meadows training center last Saturday. It was the first recorded workout of 2008 for the Kentucky-bred Cherokee Run colt.
“He was just in a gallop,” Zito was quoted as saying in a Thoroughbred Times story by Jeff Lowe.
Zito has stated that he would like to see War Pass kick off his 3-year-old campaign in a race in mid-February. After that, the trainer has tentatively selected the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby on March 15 and Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 8.
This schedule would give War Pass three starts at 3 before the Kentucky Derby. I still consider it important for a horse to have a minimum of three starts at 3 before the Derby. Of the last 57 to try and win the Derby with fewer than three previous starts at 3, 55 have failed. Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Street Sense in 2007 were the only exceptions.
Pyro, runner-up in both the Champagne and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, worked four furlongs in :51 4/5 at the Fair Grounds last Saturday for Asmussen. The Kentucky-bred son of Pulpit is expected to make his 2008 debut in the Grade III Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 9.
According to private clocker Toby Turrell, Asmussen plans to work Pyro in company with Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Curlin this Friday.
Into Mischief worked six furlongs in 1:14 3/5 at Santa Anita last Thursday for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella. The Kentucky-bred Harlan’s Holiday colt, winner of the Grade I CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec. 22, is to run next in Santa Anita’s Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Feb. 2.
Maimonides continues to train sharply in preparation for his first 2008 race. The Kentucky-bred Vindication colt drilled four furlongs in :48 at Santa Anita last Sunday. The half-brother to Grade I winners El Corredor and Roman Ruler was not quite ready to start in the San Rafael Stakes.
Anak Nakal, yet another Zito trainee, worked four furlongs in :51 4/5 at Palm Meadows last Saturday. The Kentucky-bred son of Victory Gallop won the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 24.